Chapter 1: The Startling Hand of Cards

As you glance at your hand of cards, disbelief washes over you. You have somehow drawn every single heart card—an entire suit with no other cards mixed in.

After an evening filled with chatter, laughter, and perhaps a few too many drinks, you find yourself at the dining table with three long-time friends. You were just about to play Thirteen, a game where the entire deck is dealt among four players.

Glancing around the table, your shock deepens as your friends, equally astonished, reveal their hands. A moment of stunned silence follows as everyone stares at the flawless sets of hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades laid out before them.

What could be the explanation for this?

You might speculate that the host somehow rigged the deck beforehand to create this miraculous scenario. Yet, you remember seeing the host shuffle the cards repeatedly, distractedly sipping drinks and engaging in conversation amidst the buzz of social media notifications.

While it’s conceivable that this illusion could be staged, let’s assume that wasn’t the case. What then? Is there something mystical occurring? Could this extraordinary arrangement have occurred purely by chance?

Indeed, it could. The only force at play here is the sheer randomness dictated by probability.

This scenario mirrors an idea discussed in Richard Dawkins' book, The Magic of Reality. He ponders the likelihood of such a card arrangement, calculating the odds as “almost impossibly small: 1 in 536, 447, 737, 765, 488, 792, 839, 237, 440, 000” (Dawkins, 2011, p.27). He further notes that one could deal cards for a trillion years without achieving four hands of perfect suits.

What I find particularly fascinating is Dawkins’ reminder that this deal is just as improbable as any other card arrangement that has ever occurred!

Take a deck of cards right now—shuffle them or not; it makes no difference—and deal out four hands of thirteen cards each. The outcome will be governed by the same mind-boggling odds of 1 in 536, 447, 737, 765, 488, 792, 839, 237, 440, 000.

The hands you receive will likely be mundane and unremarkable. However, consider this: the likelihood of your specific arrangement of cards appearing is so astronomically low that it has almost certainly never occurred in the entirety of card-playing history and will likely never arise again—unless we possess an infinite amount of time.

Many of us are familiar with the tale of chimpanzees randomly typing on typewriters. The astonishing premise is that given endless time, they would inevitably produce the works of Shakespeare. No supernatural elements are necessary—just the relentless passage of time and the principles of probability (along with eternal chimps and unlimited supplies of typewriters, ink, paper, and bananas).

When we realize that most of the “extraordinary” patterns we perceive around us are simply random occurrences devoid of mystical significance, Probability transforms into ProbaHumility.

I don’t intend to unravel the beauty of the universe or disturb anyone’s beliefs (thanks again, Mr. Dawkins), but how often do we find ourselves attributing supernatural causes to mere coincidences that weave through our daily lives?

We notice faces in the clouds and intricate designs in our coffee froth, often delighting in assigning meanings to patterns that lack any inherent significance.

There are exceptions, of course, such as detectives analyzing behavioral patterns to apprehend criminals. However, these patterns are generated by human actions, and humans are inherently drawn to creating and discovering patterns.

The key takeaway is that there is already an abundance of wonders to marvel at. Look at our vibrant planet captured in images from space, observe the lush rainforests and oceans, and appreciate the astonishing diversity of life across various ecosystems. Take a walk in the countryside or your own garden and immerse yourself in the richness of the natural world with all your senses.

Let’s strive to be less inclined to seek the paranormal in everyday life and more appreciative of the incredible realities that already exist.

As Douglas Adams wisely stated in The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy: “Isn’t it enough to see that a garden is beautiful without having to believe that there are fairies at the bottom of it too?”

Section 1.1: The Nature of Coincidence

As we delve into the concept of coincidence, it’s essential to understand how our brains are wired to recognize patterns.

Chapter 2: Understanding the Odds

In the first video, This Update Is AMAZING | Meeting Tiana & Stopping Jafar | Disney Dreamlight Valley, we explore how the unexpected can lead to a shift in perspective, much like the surprising hands dealt in our earlier card game.

The second video, Underrated Skylanders. (Trigger Warning… probably somehow…) 2021 - YouTube, delves into overlooked aspects of gaming, paralleling our exploration of seemingly extraordinary occurrences in everyday life.