Podcasting's Challenges: Insights on Saturation and Strategy
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This article responds to Lucas Shaw’s Bloomberg article titled ‘Podcasting Hasn’t Produced A New Hit in Years’. I encourage you to read his piece for context.
It's evident when an industry analysis resonates, and this week, podcasting felt that impact. Lucas Shaw, a Bloomberg journalist focused on Hollywood, recently published a newsletter with the provocative title ‘Podcasting Hasn’t Produced A New Hit in Years’. The response from industry professionals has been overwhelming, and here's my perspective.
Shaw highlights concerns from the podcasting realm, particularly from Spotify, regarding the lackluster performance of new shows, including originals and exclusives. The core issue can be summarized as follows:
> The number of new podcasts has surged faster than the audience growth, leading to a decline in listeners per show. The competition for weekend listening options far exceeds the backlog of TV shows waiting to be watched.
Regular followers of my blog know that I largely concur with Shaw's observations. There is indeed a discoverability issue in podcasting, compounded by over-saturation. Consequently, audiences are gravitating towards established brand properties, making it challenging to discover new content. However, it's worth noting that this has been a concern since the inception of podcasting. While podcast audiences have grown steadily, the production of new podcasts has skyrocketed, indicating this isn't a novel challenge.
Analyzing the Data
One area where I take issue with Shaw’s analysis is his claim that:
> None of the 10 most popular podcasts in the U.S. last year debuted in the last couple of years, according to Edison Research. They are an average of more than 7 years old, and three of the top five are over a decade old.
I argue that using an average to assess this data isn't particularly insightful. Let's examine the shows individually, from the top-ranked (Joe Rogan Experience) down to the tenth (Call Her Daddy).
- The Joe Rogan Experience: Started in 2009.
- The Daily: Started in 2017.
- Crime Junkie: Started in 2017.
- This American Life: Originated on radio in 1995, transitioned to podcast in 2006.
- Stuff You Should Know: Began in 2008.
- My Favorite Murder: Launched in 2016.
- Pod Save America: Started in 2017.
- Serial: Debuted in 2014.
- Office Ladies: Started in 2019.
- Call Her Daddy: Launched in 2018.
This breakdown provides a clearer picture. There's a significant gap between Stuff You Should Know launching in 2008 and Serial in 2014. Should we interpret anything from this? If we calculate the mode for release years, 2017 emerges, which seems relatively recent. A comparison with the 2021 U.S. cinema box office reveals that the top five films were all part of long-established franchises, emphasizing a broader issue of originality across media.
In the top 10 podcasts globally last year, there are essentially 6 new shows (The Daily, Crime Junkie, My Favorite Murder, Pod Save America, Office Ladies, and Call Her Daddy) alongside 3 legacy programs (JRE, This American Life/Serial, and Stuff You Should Know), which doesn’t paint a grim picture. However, the business sector tends to be impatient. Since 2019, despite massive investments in podcasting, we haven’t seen any groundbreaking new shows emerge.
Spotify’s Strategic Shortcomings
The first issue lies with Spotify itself. Shaw's article references Dawn Ostroff, Spotify's Chief Content Officer. Given their substantial financial investments in podcasting, the pressure to deliver a hit is understandable. While they have acquired Joe Rogan and Call Her Daddy, which feature in the Top 10, it would be more cost-effective to nurture organic growth rather than spend vast sums on acquisitions. However, Spotify isn't the dominant player in the podcast market and must compete with shows available on various platforms like Apple Podcasts and Google Podcasts, putting them at a disadvantage.
Additionally, I believe their strategy for developing original content lacks clarity. They've attempted to attract talent, replicate existing formats, or target new audiences. In contrast, the New York Times’ approach with The Daily was straightforward: create a product that embodies the ethos of the newspaper, making it indispensable for listeners.
Spotify has been trying to act as an editorial publisher without establishing a clear editorial identity. This has resulted in a disjointed array of shows that feel inconsistent. Being the exclusive publisher of both Joe Rogan Experience and Reply All highlights this lack of coherence. Without a defined vision of what a Spotify podcast should represent, building unique brands will be challenging. A potential strategy could involve creating a suite of shows under a unified editorial umbrella, covering various themes such as world news, politics, sports, and entertainment, fostering cross-pollination among hosts.
Industry Saturation
Yet, Shaw’s article addresses more than just Spotify; it reflects the broader industry landscape. The same market fragmentation that poses challenges for Spotify also affects other ambitious players. Investments in platforms like Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Audible are at an all-time high, yet they remain siloed within their respective ecosystems. This situation could present an opportunity for independent publishers to produce universally accessible content, but the reality of an oversaturated market complicates this. To succeed in such a competitive environment, a show needs to gain substantial traction quickly or possess the resources to refine and improve, as The Daily did.
A more accurate assertion than ‘Podcasting Hasn’t Produced A New Hit in Years’ might be that ‘Podcasting Hasn’t Produced A Hit Podcaster in Years’. Joe Rogan, for instance, was already known from Fear Factor and wrestling circles before his podcast fame. Similarly, Alex Cooper from Call Her Daddy and Michael Barbaro from The Daily are also recognized as podcast stars. Most of the top 10 podcasts are led by individuals who gained fame through their podcasts, except for Office Ladies, which is a successful TV recap show and the newest on the list. Given this context, one would expect every publisher and distributor to be eager to discover the next breakout podcaster.
However, the industry is mired in a talent acquisition game, focusing on celebrities and influencers despite evidence that they don't guarantee substantial audiences and often incur high costs. Daily announcements of new celebrity podcasts flood the market. This reliance on familiar names has created an expectation among financial stakeholders for recognizable faces in new projects.
A mediocre show featuring a reality TV star may find it easier to attract funding than a well-produced, engaging podcast hosted by unknowns. The industry's fixation on established talent is misguided, yet it has fostered a cycle where advertisers demand star power, perpetuating the problem. This cycle resembles the myth of Ouroboros, where the serpent consumes its own tail.
Podcasters Facing an Uphill Battle
Why did Shaw’s Bloomberg article resonate? It’s a brief newsletter, yet it voiced a sentiment many podcasters share: the feeling that the system is against them. The notion that podcasting, once a medium promising fame and fortune for all, has let them down is palpable.
Podcasting isn't broken. It continues to produce successful shows and foster ideas that will undoubtedly become hits in the future (I predict that the list of the most popular shows in 2025 will include several that began between 2019 and 2025). However, aspiring podcasters may need to excel in another field first to gain traction, reminiscent of how many American politicians have law degrees. The primary requirement for becoming a marketable podcaster now seems to be to have an established presence elsewhere.
Podcasters are some of the most undervalued talents. Their potential for rapid ascension from obscurity to prominence is unmatched. Investing in emerging podcasters would be a smart move for platforms like Spotify. For a fraction of what they spent on Joe Rogan, they could have nurtured the careers of multiple podcasters over a two-year contract, retaining intellectual property rights, thereby creating a more efficient and cost-effective pathway to discovering the next hit podcast.
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