Unlocking the Mysteries of the Monty Hall Dilemma
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Chapter 1: The Monty Hall Game
Congratulations! You've arrived on the set of Let's Make a Deal, and now you have the opportunity to win a fantastic prize. Three doors stand before you. Monty Hall looks directly at you and explains:
"Here’s how it goes. Behind one door lies the grand prize, while the other two hide nothing of value. You select a door, I will then open one of the remaining doors to reveal a non-winning option, and then you’ll have the chance to switch your choice.
"Let’s add a twist: you can select two doors. If the grand prize is behind either of those, you win.
"Alternatively, you can pick just one door and must stick with it. What’s your decision?"
You can test this out right now. Choose your option below:
A: Only Door #1: ?1 — OR — Doors #2 and #3 combined: ?2?3
B: Only Door #2: ?2 — OR — Doors #1 and #3 combined: ?1?3
C: Only Door #3: ?3 — OR — Doors #1 and #2 combined: ?1?2
You might be thinking, "Why would I limit myself to just one door when I can opt for two?"
This situation mirrors the classic Monty Hall problem: You divide the doors into two categories: one with a single door and another with two doors. That’s your choice: A, B, or C as listed above.
After you select, Monty reveals a dud prize behind one of the doors in the pair. He then prompts you to make a choice: will you stick with the single door, or will you take a chance on one of the unopened doors from the pair?
Two psychological phenomena come into play here.
- The reluctance to alter a decision once made.
- The suspicion that there may be a hidden trick at work.
The first mindset can lead us to hold onto stocks that have dropped to a price we wouldn't have bought at initially. The second mindset explains why you explored all six options presented.
Did you manage to win? Feel free to share your results below!
