Is the Megadrought Truly Over or Just Taking a Break?
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Understanding the Megadrought: A Local Perspective
Over the past three years, I've delved into the megadrought affecting the Southwest, a topic that has unexpectedly captured my attention. This journey began as a personal exploration of climate change in my own region—specifically focusing on the crucial Colorado River.
In my home state of New Mexico, most water flows into the Rio Grande and subsequently to the Gulf of Mexico. However, the continental divide runs along the western part of the state, directing water to the Colorado River, which we have a claim to. Our contributions to this river system include the San Juan River in the north and the Gila River in the southern region.
The Colorado River plays a vital role for seven states in the Colorado Basin, covering over 21% of the United States' land area. Notably, Lake Powell provides power for these states, including Nebraska, which lies outside the basin.
As a refresher, the Upper Colorado River Basin encompasses Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico, while the Lower Basin consists of Arizona, Nevada, and California.
Water disputes have been a part of Western history since the early days of settlement. A significant historical conflict was sparked by William Mulholland's initiative to divert water from Owens Valley to Los Angeles through an aqueduct constructed between 1908 and 1913. He secretly acquired water rights from local farmers, leaving them without resources, leading to fierce resistance. Nonetheless, development proceeded, and the once-fertile Owens Valley has now transformed into a near-desert landscape.
The Colorado River is governed by a complex framework of agreements, federal laws, international treaties, and regulatory guidelines collectively referred to as "the Law of the River." The original Compact, established in 1922, was not fully ratified by Arizona until 1944 due to water disputes with California, culminating in an 11-year Supreme Court case. This Compact allocated the river’s flow without considering Mexico's share or the needs of the 30 indigenous tribes relying on it, as well as overlooking evaporation losses. Amendments to this Compact are ongoing, with new federal guidelines anticipated by 2026.
So, is the megadrought truly at an end?
As a regular reader of The Los Angeles Times, I appreciate its investigative reporting on the Colorado River and its broader implications for the Southwest. Last year, drought coverage was prevalent, but recently, it seems to have diminished.
During this time, the voices of climate change skeptics seem to grow louder. California appears to be enjoying ample water supplies, although this is misleading. Lakes Mead and Powell may have increased in height compared to last year, but they remain under 40% capacity.
The United Nations has issued warnings regarding climate change, particularly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. On November 17, global temperatures reached a startling 2.06°C higher than those pre-industrial levels.
According to David Reay of the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, humanity has just experienced the hottest 12-month period in at least 125,000 years. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service has stated that 2023 is "virtually certain" to become the hottest year on record.
June was already noted as the hottest month ever recorded until July broke that record, followed by August and September. This trend shows no signs of reversing, and 2023 is likely to be the warmest year in history.
Sea temperatures are also a concerning factor, with the global average reaching 69.73°F on July 31, a record high. Off the coast of Florida, temperatures exceeding 100°F were reported—a phenomenon that is both rare and alarming. High sea temperatures are contributing to the die-off of coral reefs, which are crucial for coastal ecosystems. Coupled with rising sea levels from polar ice melt, these conditions indicate an impending environmental crisis.
Managing Water Resources in the Colorado River Basin
The most viable solution for the Colorado River's challenges is to reduce water consumption. Agriculture currently consumes around 75% of the water drawn from the river in California and Arizona. This raises critical questions about food production and the sustainability of crops like alfalfa, which is essential for livestock. Without intervention, the price of beef may continue to climb.
Despite a record snowpack of 160% of normal in the Rockies last winter, the Colorado River's flow remains about 20% below historical averages. The soil is still parched, and evaporation rates are high due to rising temperatures. The 40 million individuals reliant on this river will continue to face challenges.
"I think doomsday may get pushed off another year, giving us time to devise more rational solutions," stated Camille Touton, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner.
The El Niño Effect on Weather Patterns
After completing my education, I relocated to Santa Fe, New Mexico, during a significant El Niño event in 1982. This weather phenomenon typically brings monsoonal rains starting after June 15, but that year, the rains began early and cooled the summer temperatures significantly.
Now, as we enter another El Niño phase, the question arises: will its effects mirror historical patterns, or have climate changes altered its behavior?
El Niño, also known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), occurs when warm water forms in the central and eastern Pacific, often resulting in increased precipitation across the southern United States while the north remains drier. The recent transition to El Niño has led to warmer temperatures and, while some areas have experienced snowfall, New Mexico remains largely drought-stricken.
Typically, El Niño events occur every two to seven years, and the current one is expected to be particularly intense, bringing additional rainfall to the southern U.S.
Conversely, the La Niña phase, characterized by cooler equatorial waters in the eastern Pacific, has led to some of the most severe drought conditions in the Southwest over the past three years. As the climate shifts, we’re witnessing a stark contrast in weather patterns.
During the winter of 2022-2023, the ENSO transitioned to El Niño, which could explain the unusual precipitation patterns observed in the West. Many climate specialists regard last winter's conditions as an anomaly, predicting that, due to human-induced climate change, hotter and drier conditions will prevail.
The summer of 2023 was exceptional, with cities like Phoenix recording 31 days of temperatures above 110°F, setting new records. Albuquerque experienced 17 days at or exceeding 100°F, far exceeding the typical range. Houston suffered from an extreme heat streak, enduring 22 consecutive days of extreme heat.
While the southern regions of Arizona and New Mexico received some monsoonal rainfall, the northern half of New Mexico experienced a significant lack of precipitation, with 77 consecutive days without rain in Albuquerque during the monsoon season.
The remnants of Hurricane Hilary provided unexpected rain in the typically dry Western Southwest, leading to record rainfall in Death Valley National Park and causing damaging landslides.
"El Niño is going to have a significant impact next year, leading to even greater warming as we approach 2024," warned Andrew Pershing, President of Science for Climate Central.
Impact on the Mississippi River
While my focus has primarily been on the West, it's important to consider how these patterns affect regions further east, particularly the Mississippi River watershed. This extreme El Niño is expected to create challenges for areas like the Ohio Valley and the headwaters of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, which are likely to experience below-average precipitation this winter.
For the second consecutive year, Tower Rock, a stone formation in the Mississippi River south of St. Louis, has become accessible on foot due to persistent drought conditions. This extreme drought has affected all tributaries of the Mississippi, leading to historically low water levels.
Louisiana has faced severe drought, with about half of the state experiencing "exceptional drought," the most severe classification. The Mississippi River's cargo system is crucial for transporting 60% of U.S. grain production, and the drought has impeded barge traffic during the harvest season.
Saltwater intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico poses additional threats to the Mississippi River's water supply, particularly in Plaquemines Parish, where residents have been advised to use bottled water only. The "saltwater wedge" has advanced dangerously close to New Orleans' water supply, compounding issues already exacerbated by climate change and drought.
With the Mississippi River's flow diminishing and the ongoing threat of sea level rise, the situation remains dire for the 18 million people reliant on this water source. As the weather continues to be warm and dry, the outlook for the river and its tributaries remains uncertain.
Looking Ahead
In these turbulent times, cities like New Orleans find themselves in precarious positions as they confront the challenges of climate change. Future forecasts for the upper Mississippi and Missouri River basins indicate less snowfall and higher temperatures, suggesting that these extreme conditions may become the new norm.
Next time, we will return our focus to the West, examining individual regions and their strategies for navigating a future with diminishing water resources.
This video explores the implications of the megadrought on the American West and discusses potential solutions to the ongoing water crisis.
NASA's insights on projected megadroughts for the American West provide an in-depth look at the challenges and future of water resources in this region.
Sources for this Series Include:
- Los Angeles Times, 10/17/2023
- The Texas Observer, 10/11/2023
- The Arizona Republic, various reports, 9/28-10/1/2023
- NOAA, NASA, NWS, and the United Nations
- Other articles and reports from reputable news sources