# The Journey to Autonomous Vehicles: A Future on Wheels
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Chapter 1: The Rise of Self-Driving Technology
When my team and I introduced the Tesla Full Self-Driving beta last year, I felt a deep connection with our users and their diverse experiences while trying out our technology. Collaborating with engineers who are deeply committed to safety inspired me to envision a future where autonomous driving is commonplace in the next 5 to 10 years.
Although challenges and enhancements are inevitable, the excitement of using self-driving software can be likened to the transformative impact of Google search and the dot-com boom on our learning in the late '90s. Similarly, the advent of ride-hailing platforms like Uber in 2015 drastically changed how we navigate our cities, disrupting traditional taxi services through innovative technological connections between passengers and drivers.
These advancements have significantly altered our lives, and the introduction of driverless vehicles could represent one of the most monumental shifts in society since the industrial revolution. This thrilling experience propelled me to delve deeper into the captivating domain of embodied artificial intelligence and self-driving systems.
Before we explore the intricate details of self-driving cars in this series, it's essential to reflect on the journey that led us here.
Section 1.1: Historical Context of Transportation
As we trace the history of transportation, it's fascinating to note that our ancestors began walking and running approximately a million years ago. This basic mode of mobility allowed for the transportation of goods and people, freeing our hands for various tasks. Nowadays, we can even walk and text simultaneously, maintaining balance with bent legs.
About 4,000 years ago, horse-drawn carriages became the primary means of moving people and goods. Humans utilized animals for direct riding, carrying loads, or pulling wheeled vehicles.
The modern automobile made its debut only 135 years ago, thanks to pioneers like Karl Benz, Gottlieb Daimler, Nicolaus Otto, and French engineer Emile Levassor. However, the concept of self-driving cars dates back even further, to the Futurama exhibit at the 1939 New York World’s Fair. General Motors showcased their vision of an automated highway system, complete with self-driving vehicles.
> “The world we are now seeing is a vision, an artistic conception, which may undergo many changes as it develops into the great realities of tomorrow.” — Futurama: Highways and Horizons, 1939.
While a fully robotic vehicle world hasn't materialized yet, the automotive sector has made strides into the 21st century, incorporating the Internet of Things (IoT) and computerized systems. Many vehicles today already boast autonomous features, such as parking assistance and automated braking systems.
Research in this field began in the 1980s when the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon University developed NavLab in 1986. Google launched its self-driving project in 2009, led by Sebastian Thrun. In 2015, Tesla introduced its Autopilot software, and in 2017, Baidu unveiled the Apollo autonomous driving platform.
> “Your car should drive itself. It’s amazing to me that we let humans drive cars… It’s a bug that cars were invented before computers.” — Eric Schmidt
Currently, efforts to develop fully autonomous vehicles continue, aiming to make driving safer and more convenient in the decades ahead. The next 5 to 10 years will be critical for advancements in self-driving technology. Alongside major players like Tesla and Waymo, numerous startups are pushing the boundaries of artificial intelligence and self-driving innovations.
Google's Self-Driving Cars Taking Over San Francisco and LA
This video discusses how Google's self-driving cars are revolutionizing urban transportation in major cities, showcasing their capabilities and challenges.
Section 1.2: The Future Economic Impact of Autonomous Vehicles
According to a 2020 Statista report, by 2030, we could see one in ten vehicles on the road being fully automated, contributing approximately $13.7 billion to the U.S. economy. Robo-taxis are expected to make up a significant portion of this market, potentially generating around $1.2 trillion. I envision that within five years, we will begin to see autonomous driving technology implemented in developing countries, especially on highways.
How do we transition to a driverless future?
Driver assistance technologies currently available in vehicles are already saving lives and reducing injuries, but they are not without flaws. Improving safety remains a top priority as we strive for full reliance on driverless technology.
Globally, road accidents claim 1.35 million lives each year. The CDC reports that traffic injuries are the eighth leading cause of death for all age groups and the primary cause of death for children and young adults aged 5–29. The number of fatalities from crashes now surpasses those from HIV/AIDS.
To address this, the automotive industry aims to enhance safety through automated driving systems (ADS) that can take over driving tasks when necessary. This technology will help minimize accidents by preventing unsafe lane changes and alerting drivers to potential hazards.
The Society of Automotive Engineers has defined various levels of driving autonomy, indicating that the industry is still striving to achieve Level 3 or Level 4 automation effectively.
Self-Driving Cars: From Science Fiction to Scale | SXSW 2023
This presentation explores the evolution of self-driving cars from fictional concepts to practical applications, emphasizing their impact on the future of transportation.
Chapter 2: The Levels of Driving Automation
Most vehicles on the road today are still manually operated, classified as Level 0 autonomy. At this stage, the human driver is solely responsible for all driving tasks, although there may be systems to assist them, such as emergency braking.
Level 1: Driver Assistance involves basic automation, like cruise control, where the vehicle assists but the driver remains in control.
Level 2: Partial Automation includes advanced systems like auto lane-keeping and adaptive cruise control. Here, the vehicle manages both steering and speed but the human driver must remain engaged.
The leap from Level 2 to Level 3 is significant. Level 3: Conditional Automation vehicles can make decisions based on environmental detection but still need human intervention.
Level 4: High Automation means the vehicle can operate independently without human control, though manual override is still an option. For example, Waymo's Level 4 taxi service in Arizona operates without a safety driver, having logged millions of miles in testing.
Level 5: Full Automation will allow vehicles to operate entirely autonomously, without requiring human oversight, and will be capable of navigating any environment.
With advancements in driverless technology, we stand on the brink of a transportation revolution. Imagine commuting without the need for drivers, providing greater mobility for the elderly and disabled, and reducing carbon emissions in our cities.
A recent study highlights three trends crucial for unlocking the full potential of autonomous vehicles: vehicle automation, electrification, and ride-sharing. By 2050, these combined efforts could lead to:
- A 30% reduction in traffic congestion
- A 40% decrease in transportation costs
- Enhanced urban livability and walkability
- An 80% reduction in global CO2 emissions
While this future is within reach, we must navigate several challenges to achieve Level 5 automation. I hope this exploration has provided insight into the origins of autonomous vehicles and the path forward, inspiring excitement about the transformative potential of driverless technology.
More Resources
Automated Vehicles for Safety
The ongoing evolution of automotive technology aims to provide enhanced safety benefits.
www.nhtsa.gov
Road Traffic Injuries and Deaths - A Global Problem
Traffic accidents are a leading cause of death across age groups.
www.cdc.gov
Self-Driving Fundamentals: Featuring Apollo
An open software platform for building autonomous driving systems.
www.udacity.com
About the Author
Moorissa Tjokro
A roboticist, engineer, and artist based in San Francisco, California. Passionate about innovation and creation, I aim to contribute to the future of technology.
moorissa.ai