Exponential Change: Navigating Through the Chaos of Evolution
Written on
The Quanta of Change
A Unified Theory, Beta-Release
“You believe in the God who plays dice, and I in complete law and order in a world which objectively exists, and which I, in a wildly speculative way, am trying to capture. I hope that someone will discover a more realistic way, or rather a more tangible basis than it has been my lot to find. Even the great initial success of the Quantum Theory does not make me believe in the fundamental dice-game.” — Albert Einstein, 1944
I do not subscribe to the idea of a deity. This includes the Catholic God from my upbringing, the Christian God used by some to justify xenophobic ideologies, and the abstract Universe often referenced by spiritual communities.
Coming to terms with the notion that the universe operates purely on mathematics and science, where we exist as predetermined variables contributing to a complex symphony of change within a structured framework, has been a challenge. It is human nature to desire the existence of a guiding force — whether it be a divine creator or a benevolent overseer — as it provides comfort in believing that a grand plan governs our existence.
I will keep my findings succinct, but I am open to expanding on them if the opportunity arises.
Exponential Growth Explained
Take a moment to examine the chart above. It exemplifies exponential growth, a crucial concept that applies universally, whether on Earth or in the cosmos.
Every exponential function has four essential components:
- An Origin Point: This is where the curve begins, marked by the intersection of the X and Y axes. In every natural and human-made system, an origin exists—be it the inception of currency, the emergence of species, or the Big Bang itself. These origins symbolize a transformation from apparent nothingness to something—igniting a process that emerges from the reorganization of other systems in disarray.
- X and Y Axes: The X-axis typically represents an independent variable, while the Y-axis measures a dependent quantity.
- A Curve with an Increasing Slope: As one moves from left to right on the X-axis, the curve rises more steeply. This illustrates that true linear growth is a myth; in practice, growth is rarely linear, often manifesting in exponential patterns. This misunderstanding can lead to significant errors in perception, especially regarding population dynamics, economic inflation, and technological advancements.
- An Asymptotic Dotted Line: Eventually, the curve approaches a vertical trajectory, indicating a limit beyond which it cannot sustain growth. This asymptote represents a threshold beyond which the function becomes invalid.
With this foundational understanding, let’s explore how these principles apply across various scientific fields.
Chemical Laws and Their Interconnections
I want to emphasize two pivotal chemical principles: The Law of Conservation of Matter and The Law of Conservation of Energy.
The Law of Conservation of Matter asserts that “During an ordinary chemical change, there is no detectable increase or decrease in the quantity of matter.”
Conversely, the Law of Conservation of Energy states that “Energy cannot be created or destroyed, but can change its form.”
These laws imply that the total amounts of matter and energy in the universe remain constant.
Why are these principles critical? Here are three implications:
- Since mass and energy are neither created nor destroyed, no origin point exists in isolation from other systems.
- The X and Y axes can traverse various phases. Time is a prime example; although it is a human construct, it persists independently of other variables.
- An asymptote can serve as the Y-axis for one system and the X-axis for another.
Let’s focus on the third point and circle back to Einstein's inquiry: What occurs at the asymptote?
Understanding Quantum Mechanics
Quantum Mechanics might not be the most popular topic at social gatherings—yes, even at mine! Yet, if you're inclined to delve into its complexities, here’s a brief overview:
A particle's presence in a specific location at a given time is probabilistic, influenced by interrelated factors such as energy and field strength. Energy exchanges occur in discrete units, similar to how notes are played on a guitar fretboard.
To make this tangible, consider how humans, despite evolving significantly over millennia, still belong to the same species. There have been countless variations, yet we remain categorized as humans.
The diagram above illustrates the phases of water. It encapsulates the essential attributes of the graphs we've discussed.
- There are three origin points: the intersection of the X and Y axes (absolute zero), the triple point (where water can exist as solid, liquid, and gas), and the critical point (where water can exist as either liquid or gas).
- An X and Y axis representing temperature and pressure.
- Curves that rise at an increasing rate (in fact, there are two!).
- Asymptotes that the curves can never touch, as water cannot exist simultaneously in multiple phases.
This graph adheres to the Law of Conservation of Matter, as the total amount of water remains constant, and aligns with the Law of Conservation of Energy, wherein energy merely shifts between potential and kinetic forms.
Additionally, due to Quantum Mechanics, water can only be classified into three distinct phases: solid, liquid, and gas.
Broader Implications of Exponential Systems
Exponential systems are prevalent in our environment and relate to personal growth and societal structures. For instance, the following graph depicts an exponential model:
The origin point is the emergence of the first human. The X-axis represents time, while the Y-axis indicates the population. The curve, filled in red, suggests that the population growth rate peaked nearly fifty years ago and is anticipated to decline around 2070. This is historically significant, as a population decrease has never occurred systematically before.
As societies and economies mature, the underlying functions may no longer hold true, leading to potential system collapses. While the term "collapse" carries negative implications, it is not inherently cause for alarm. However, it does raise important questions: How will economies adapt? How will societal infrastructures transform? How will governments manage declining birth rates?
These graphs represent the U.S. national debt. Please set aside any political biases for a moment, as we analyze this data.
The origin point is the first printed U.S. Dollar. The X-axis denotes time, while the Y-axis reflects the total national debt. The curves depict how debt relates to time, and the asymptote may be upon us.
The federal reserve banking system, designed to regulate debt, now faces challenges as spending exceeds income growth. This raises concerns about the imminent collapse of the currency, with a staggering 98% devaluation since 1913.
What if we apply this quantum and exponential reasoning to more abstract concepts?
Carl Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
Astronomer Carl Sagan once proposed a “cosmic calendar” to visualize the universe's history, which may help contextualize our discussion. According to this calendar, the Big Bang marks January 1, while modern civilization emerges just seconds before midnight on December 31.
In this perspective, humanity’s achievements—like the printing press, steam engine, and the Internet—are compacted into the final second.
Sagan's perspective is shared by others. Regarding evolution, Science Magazine notes that life emerged on Earth approximately four billion years ago, with significant milestones leading to the development of modern civilization over a mere 10,000 years.
The resulting graph would resemble previous exponential functions we’ve discussed.
The Logarithmic Timeline
When depicted linearly, technological advancements appear exponential, reflecting Moore’s Law—the benchmark of technological progression. Note that a logarithmic scale also possesses an asymptote, suggesting that an origin point may exist on such a limit.
As discussed earlier, an asymptote can serve as the boundary of another related system, highlighting a fascinating overlap between origin points and asymptotic limits.
In terms of evolution and technology, it appears we are nearing these limits, prompting questions about the implications for humanity and society.
The Current Critical Point
Many systems—both human-made and natural—are approaching critical thresholds simultaneously. The 20th century saw unprecedented war-related devastation, and the 21st century has entered a complex and potentially precarious era.
Climate change intensifies, natural disasters escalate, authoritarianism resurges globally, and the U.S. finds itself in a precarious historical moment. For students, half of their knowledge may become outdated before graduation. Wealth inequality has surged, yet medical advancements have flourished. Paradigms are shifting, sometimes subtly and at other times violently.
What does this signify? It returns us to the concept of God.
God as an Abstraction
The idea of God serves as a framework to explain origins, asymptotic points, critical transitions, system collapses, and the resultant chaos. It has shaped our understanding of science, law, and our connections to one another and the planet, serving as an explanation in the absence of better alternatives.
Reflecting on the origins of current systems nearing their limits—such as the stability of the American republic, the presumed infinite growth of populations, and the role of technology—we see that these constructs were established in previous paradigms. Their foundational relevance is waning.
Our collective narratives—those that inform laws, arts, sciences, and texts—require more than mere updates. We need entirely new stories that align with our evolving truths. This is a more challenging endeavor than relying on an abstract deity or established institutions, yet it is essential for navigating the impending phase change.
Many would prefer the comfort of a divine presence, confident in a grand design executed by faithful adherents.
Indeed, there is a plan—dictated by mathematics and science, through exponential functions and quantum mechanics—executed by devoted participants. It is imperative that we recognize the transformations unfolding around us, as well as the tumultuous future that may loom: singularity, population decline, global conflict, societal renewal. The specifics remain uncertain.
I may be mistaken, and I welcome differing viewpoints that may refine or dismantle my assertions. To echo the words of someone far wiser than myself: I hope that more realistic perspectives will emerge, offering a tangible foundation beyond what I have identified. Given the stakes involved, we all would prefer that. Ultimately, as with water vaporizing, it is no longer a question of “will it happen?” but rather “how could it not?”
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